6-Month Return
--
May - November 2025
Annualized
--
Time-weighted
Sharpe Ratio
1.69
Risk-adjusted
Avg Drawdown
--
vs BTC -35%

Weekly Returns Distribution

27 weeks of live trading

Win Rate 37.0%
Best Week +68.93%
Worst Week -13.39%
Avg Win +6.2%

Drawdown Analysis

LOX vs Bitcoin comparison

Shallower drawdowns than buy-and-hold Bitcoin

Profit Factor Performance

6 months rolling profit factor

Profit Factor >1.5 indicates strong trading edge
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Zero Slippage

Trading in $10B+ daily volume BTC/ETH/AVAX futures. Our positions don't move the market.

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High Conviction

Can take full positions instantly. Nimble execution impossible for large funds.

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Scalable to $30M+

Strategy tested at scale. Plenty of capacity for growth without performance degradation.

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Bitcoin On-Chain & Market Intelligence

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Pi Cycle Top Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator uses the 111-day moving average (x2) and 350-day moving average. Historically, when the 111DMA×2 (red) crosses above the 350DMA (green), Bitcoin price has topped. This is a market cycle timing tool originally developed by Philip Swift.

Stock-to-Flow Model

BTC Price vs S2F Model

Plan B's scarcity model - logarithmic scale

Hash Ribbons

Miner capitulation indicator

30-day / 60-day MA crossover signals miner recovery

Puell Multiple

Miner revenue indicator

<0.5 = buy zone | >4 = sell zone

Mayer Multiple

Price / 200-day MA

<1.0 = below trend | >2.4 = overextended

NVT Ratio

Network Value to Transactions

High NVT = overvalued | Low NVT = undervalued

Macro Sentiment & Economic Indicators

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Yield Curve Inversion (Recession Signal)

10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

Deep inversion = late-cycle stress. Below 0% signals potential recession.

Credit Risk Spreads

Investment Grade vs High Yield OAS

Rising spreads = tighter risk conditions, negative for BTC beta.

USD Strength & Real Rates

DXY Index & Real Yield

Strong USD & high real rates = liquidity headwind for risk assets.